In August 2024, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated significantly, with Ukraine making bold moves and reclaiming territory. Notably, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers (about 386 square miles) in less than a week​ (Wikipedia)​ (Business Insider). This offensive marks a substantial shift, as Ukraine has taken almost as much territory in Russia in a short period as Russia managed to capture in Ukraine throughout the entire year​ (Business Insider).
These gains come alongside Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russian logistics by targeting key infrastructure. Ukrainian forces have destroyed several bridges in the Kursk and Glushkovo regions, significantly impairing Russian military supply lines​ (DW). Additionally, Kyiv has been tight-lipped about the full extent of its operations, but this bold approach caught Moscow off guard and has put Russia on the defensive​ (Business Insider).
Simultaneously, tensions are rising along Ukraine’s borders, particularly with Belarus. The Belarusian government, led by President Lukashenko, has stationed troops along its border with Ukraine, claiming Kyiv is preparing for an attack, though no concrete evidence has been provided​ (DW). This tense situation reflects the broader geopolitical pressures surrounding the conflict, with increasing concerns about potential provocations and wider regional instability.
Overall, the situation remains volatile, with both sides preparing for further escalations, as Ukraine continues to push back against Russian advances with increasing confidence.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election could have significant implications for the Russia-Ukraine war, depending on who wins. Here’s how each candidate might influence the conflict:
Kamala Harris:
If Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, wins the election, her approach is expected to closely follow that of the Biden administration. The current administration has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, providing billions in military aid, financial support, and rallying international alliances against Russia. Harris is likely to continue these policies, maintaining or even increasing U.S. assistance to Ukraine, further isolating Russia diplomatically and economically. Her leadership might emphasize a multilateral approach, working with NATO and the EU to maintain pressure on Moscow.
Donald Trump:
Donald Trump, if re-elected, could take a different approach. During his first term, Trump had a more skeptical view of U.S. involvement in international conflicts and was critical of NATO. He has suggested that he would push for negotiations with Russia, potentially seeking to reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine. His rhetoric indicates that he might prioritize ending the conflict through diplomacy, even if it means pressuring Ukraine to make concessions. This could lead to a significant shift in the balance of the war, possibly benefiting Russia if U.S. support for Ukraine weakens.
Ultimately, the outcome of the U.S. election could either sustain Ukraine’s efforts against Russia or shift towards a more negotiated resolution, affecting the trajectory of the war and global alliances.